Reproduktionszahl

2020-04-21 – 21:08 CEST

Entspricht dem Datenstand vom Blogpost plus der Werte aus den täglichen Situationsberichten des RKI.

Updates gab es am:

2020-04-30
2020-04-27
2020-04-25
2020-04-23
2020-05-12

Der Wert der effektiven Reproduktionszahl R (wie vom RKI geschätzt) im Verlauf seit dem 6. März. In rot markiert: R = 1.0 und R = 1.1.

Quellen: Das Paper vom RKI über die Schätzung des R-Wertes enthält in Abb. 4 einen Plot der Schätzwerte. Am 9. April wurde die erste Vorab-Version veröffentlicht (Paper v1), am 15. April die zweite (Paper v2); da habe ich jeweils die Werte ab dem 6. März mit zwei Nachkommastellen über den Daumen gepeilt aus dem Plot abgelesen. Ab dem 7. April stehen die aktuellen Schätzwerte auch in den täglichen Situationsberichten des RKI (Situationsbericht). Für den 19. April gab es vom RKI aufgrund einer “technischen Umstellung” keine Schätzung im täglichen Situationsbericht. Fehler beim Abschreiben schließe ich selbstverständlich nicht aus.

Die “tagesaktuellen” Werte aus den Situationsberichten scheinen eine größere Unsicherheit zu haben, ich vermute die basiert auf der Meldeverzögerung der Gesundheitsämter und der damit verbundenen Unsicherheit, wieviele Fälle es am Tag selbst gegeben hat.

Daten in Tabellenform

Damit ihr nicht auch mit dem Lineal an die Diagramme vom RKI müsst um selber mit den Zahlen rumzuspielen, hier die Daten in Tabellenform. Wie auch oben sind die Daten selbstverständlich nach bestem Wissen und Gewissen, aber ohne Gewähr.

Datum	tägliche Situationsberichte			Paper v2			Paper v1
	R_low	R	R_high	R_low	R	R_high	R_low	R	R_high
2020-03-01	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined
2020-03-02	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined
2020-03-03	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined
2020-03-04	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined
2020-03-05	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined
2020-03-06	undefined	undefined	undefined	2.18	2.25	2.35	2.17	2.25	2.35
2020-03-07	undefined	undefined	undefined	2.46	2.58	2.65	2.44	2.54	2.65
2020-03-08	undefined	undefined	undefined	2.63	2.73	2.82	2.60	2.70	2.80
2020-03-09	undefined	undefined	undefined	3.10	3.18	3.25	3.04	3.15	3.26
2020-03-10	undefined	undefined	undefined	3.25	3.33	3.42	3.20	3.32	3.45
2020-03-11	undefined	undefined	undefined	3.24	3.30	3.38	3.18	3.31	3.43
2020-03-12	undefined	undefined	undefined	3.07	3.12	3.20	3.03	3.13	3.24
2020-03-13	undefined	undefined	undefined	2.65	2.69	2.74	2.61	2.70	2.80
2020-03-14	undefined	undefined	undefined	2.25	2.28	2.32	2.21	2.30	2.39
2020-03-15	undefined	undefined	undefined	1.88	1.90	1.95	1.85	1.93	2.00
2020-03-16	undefined	undefined	undefined	1.69	1.73	1.77	1.68	1.75	1.82
2020-03-17	undefined	undefined	undefined	1.47	1.50	1.52	1.45	1.52	1.57
2020-03-18	undefined	undefined	undefined	1.33	1.35	1.38	1.30	1.36	1.41
2020-03-19	undefined	undefined	undefined	1.21	1.25	1.26	1.17	1.23	1.29
2020-03-20	undefined	undefined	undefined	1.02	1.05	1.06	1.00	1.06	1.12
2020-03-21	undefined	undefined	undefined	0.95	0.97	0.98	0.93	0.98	1.01
2020-03-22	undefined	undefined	undefined	0.84	0.87	0.88	0.84	0.89	0.94
2020-03-23	undefined	undefined	undefined	0.85	0.88	0.89	0.85	0.91	0.97
2020-03-24	undefined	undefined	undefined	0.83	0.87	0.87	0.84	0.90	0.96
2020-03-25	undefined	undefined	undefined	0.85	0.89	0.92	0.87	0.95	1.02
2020-03-26	undefined	undefined	undefined	0.92	0.97	1.00	0.94	1.03	1.11
2020-03-27	undefined	undefined	undefined	0.85	0.90	0.95	0.89	0.98	1.05
2020-03-28	undefined	undefined	undefined	0.89	0.93	0.98	0.93	1.03	1.13
2020-03-29	undefined	undefined	undefined	0.84	0.88	0.92	0.88	1.00	1.13
2020-03-30	undefined	undefined	undefined	0.85	0.89	0.94	0.88	1.02	1.17
2020-03-31	undefined	undefined	undefined	0.86	0.92	0.97	0.93	1.13	1.25
2020-04-01	undefined	undefined	undefined	0.88	0.94	1.00	0.99	1.18	1.38
2020-04-02	undefined	undefined	undefined	0.95	1.02	1.09	1.05	1.32	1.57
2020-04-03	undefined	undefined	undefined	0.89	0.98	1.05	1.02	1.28	1.60
2020-04-04	undefined	undefined	undefined	0.86	0.95	1.04	0.98	1.22	1.58
2020-04-05	undefined	undefined	undefined	0.81	0.89	0.98	undefined	undefined	undefined
2020-04-06	undefined	undefined	undefined	0.77	0.85	0.93	undefined	undefined	undefined
2020-04-07	1.0	1.3	1.6	0.74	0.85	0.96	undefined	undefined	undefined
2020-04-08	0.9	1.2	1.6	0.75	0.89	1.02	undefined	undefined	undefined
2020-04-09	0.9	1.1	1.4	0.73	0.90	1.07	undefined	undefined	undefined
2020-04-10	0.9	1.1	1.4	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined
2020-04-11	1.1	1.3	1.7	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined
2020-04-12	1.0	1.3	1.6	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined
2020-04-13	1.0	1.2	1.6	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined
2020-04-14	0.8	1.0	1.2	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined
2020-04-15	0.8	0.9	1.1	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined
2020-04-16	0.5	0.7	0.8	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined
2020-04-17	0.6	0.7	0.8	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined
2020-04-18	0.7	0.8	1.0	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined
2020-04-19	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined
2020-04-20	0.8	0.9	1.1	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined
2020-04-21	0.8	0.9	1.1	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined
2020-04-22	0.7	0.9	1.0	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined
2020-04-23	0.7	0.9	1.0	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined
2020-04-24	0.7	0.9	1.1	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined
2020-04-25	0.7	0.9	1.1	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined
2020-04-26	0.8	0.9	1.1	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined
2020-04-27	0.8	1.0	1.1	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined
2020-04-28	0.7	0.9	1.0	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined
2020-04-29	0.64	0.75	0.87	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined
2020-04-30	0.64	0.76	0.89	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined
2020-05-01	0.66	0.79	0.90	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined
2020-05-02	0.66	0.78	0.90	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined
2020-05-03	0.62	0.74	0.89	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined
2020-05-04	0.66	0.76	0.89	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined
2020-05-05	0.59	0.71	0.82	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined
2020-05-06	0.53	0.65	0.77	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined
2020-05-07	0.60	0.71	0.85	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined
2020-05-08	0.67	0.83	0.99	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined
2020-05-09	0.90	1.10	1.34	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined
2020-05-10	0.94	1.13	1.35	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined
2020-05-11	0.88	1.07	1.29	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined
2020-05-12	0.79	0.94	1.10	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined	undefined